Research

Hiding in Front of Us: AI Impact on Jobs

2026-08-18 · PDF

AI and the Economy: The Four Rates Which Define The Future

2026-04-15 · PDF

Simple Heuristics on the Link Between Sharpe Ratio and Maximum Drawdowns

2025-07-15 · PDF

Hiding in the mean: AI is adding jobs and removing them at the same time

CEPR · VoxEU Column

2026-10-03 · Column

The Quiet Way A.I. Is Hitting the Work Force

The New York Times · Business

2026-09-16 · Quoted

What Economists Are Missing About AI

ProMarket · Stigler Center, Chicago Booth

2026-07-15 · Column

The Two Margins of the OECD Growth Slowdown: Aging, Taxation, and Technology (1995–2019)

Under review at Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

2026-09-17 · SSRN

The Two Axes That Sort AI Use: Task-Level Evidence from Platform Usage Logs

2026-09-10 · SSRN

A Signed Measure of AI Exposure, and What Twenty-One Published Indices Cannot See

2026-08-18 · SSRN

Hiding in the Mean: The Two Margins of AI’s Employment Effect

2026-07-28 · SSRN

A Protocol for Rater-Invariant Measures from Language Models, with an Application to AI Exposure

Presenting at Frontiers in ML and Economics (Philadelphia Fed)

2026-07-13 · SSRN

Projecting the Fiscal Arithmetic of the AI Transition: An Integrated Framework Across 20 OECD Economies

2026-06-25 · SSRN

Speed Does Not Increase Job Displacement: A Bottleneck Theorem for AI Speedup and Labor

2026-06-17 · SSRN

How Fast Does AI Actually Work? Per-Task Speedup Measurement Across a Validated Sample of O*NET Anchors

2026-05-28 · SSRN

Task-Structure Measures of AI Exposure as Instruments for Direct Adoption: Validation Across BTOS, Eurostat, and AIOE

2026-04-28 · SSRN

Measuring the Impact of AI on Productivity: Cross-Sectoral Evidence from Eighteen Economies Post-ChatGPT

2026-04-27 · SSRN

AI and the Economy: The Four Rates Which Define The Future (Short Version)

2026-04-20 · SSRN

AI and the Economy: The Four Rates Which Define The Future

2026-04-17 · SSRN

Liminal - AI Tokenomics

2026-09-29 · Refreshed monthly

Liminal - AI Usage Tracker

2026-09-04

Liminal - AI Job Impact Map

2026-08-26

Liminal - AI Economic Impact Model

2026-04-15 · Interactive scenario tool