AI Macro ImpactInteractive Scenario Tool
FrameworkAdjust the parameters to see how AI impacts the economy
GDP: Gross and Net Uplift ($T)
Supply-side productivity vs net after demand drag
2031: — 2040: —
Jobs Displaced (M)
Structural displacement, net of oversight creation
2031: — 2040: —
CPI: Combined, Supply & Demand
Combined = supply level shift + cumulated demand drag
Combined 2031: — 2040: —
AI Vendor TAM ($B ARR)
AI vendor revenue from productivity capture + wage bill capture
2031: — 2040: —
Tax Coverage Ratio
20% tax on gross GDP uplift ÷ net displaced wage bill · above 1.0× the transition is fiscally self-financing
2031: — 2040: —
Cumulative Fiscal Balance ($T)
Running sum of annual surplus (tax revenue − net displaced wage bill) since 2022
2031: — 2040: —
Model. Two logistic diffusion processes — Adoption and Displacement — projected against sector-specific C* ceilings across 9 sectors. Red dots are empirical anchors — BEA excess productivity, BLS OEWS confirmed job losses, observed AI vendor ARR disclosures. Monte Carlo fan bands (when toggled on) show the P15–P85, P25–P75 and P35–P65 ranges from 8,000 simulations sampling around paper-baseline parameter distributions, centered on the deterministic line at default slider values. The fan is frozen at baseline; sliders move the deterministic line only, so the line may leave the fan when you explore scenarios far from the paper's central assumptions.
References. Reference Paper: Liminal — AI and the Economy: The Four Rates Which Define The Future (2026). Sources: BEA GDP by Industry · BLS CES & OEWS · McKinsey State of AI (2025) · OpenAI / Anthropic ARR disclosures · Liminal Capital four-rate framework (2026).
Disclaimer. This tool presents output from a research framework published by Liminal Capital. Figures are scenario outputs from a published model and should not be interpreted as forecasts or guarantees. This is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation of any investment product or service. It does not describe the performance of any Liminal trading program. Past performance, modelled or otherwise, does not guarantee future results.